Back

Flash: Cyclical explanations in EU labor divergence – Goldman Sachs

FXstreet.com (New York) - According to the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs, “In recent years labor productivity growth – measured as output per hour worked – has been exceptionally weak in some European economies.”

We use a growth accounting framework to decompose changes in labor productivity in Europe, notes the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs.

The divergence in labor productivity trends is closely related to differentials in capital per worker. Looking at total factor productivity (TFP) estimates – which attempt to control for changes in labor and capital inputs – the divergence in productivity across Europe has been less extreme.

“The weakness of labor productivity and TFP in core European economies is largely a result of the cyclical position. In Germany, for example, weak investment in recent years has meant that growth in capital per worker has stalled as unemployment remains low, weighing on labor productivity growth, since ‘labor hoarding’ has also kept employment robust in the face of declines in output.” the team notes.

In Spain, Ireland and Portugal, employment has fallen significantly, particularly in domestic-facing sectors such as construction, boosting capital per worker employed and raising measured labor productivity in the process. Yet there are also signs of rising total factor productivity in these countries.

Flash: Long the USD against EUR and GBP – Deutsche Bank

According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “Given the Fed's recent statement and yesterday's news, the sensible trade seems to be long EUR/UK rates vs. US and to be long the Dollar against the Euro and Sterling.”
Leer más Previous

USD/JPY closes out week notching steadfast gains

The USD/JPY intraweek resurgence has gone hand in hand with the widespread fortification in the USD across the board.
Leer más Next