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6 Oct 2015
US Trade balance preview: What to expect in EUR/USD?
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/USD pair has managed to sustain above 1.12 handle even though the European stocks recovered losses to trade positive. The focus now shifts to the US monthly trade balance figure.
US Trade deficit seen widening in August
The consensus estimate calls for a rise in the trade deficit to USD 47.40 billion from USD 41.86 billion. The drop in the exports due to a strong US dollar and weak global demand is likely to contribute heavily to the rise in the deficit. Meanwhile, a rise in the imports could be read as slightly positive, since it could mean the improvement in the domestic consumption.
However, the markets may turn a blind eye towards the actual figure since the US released goods trade deficit figures for August last week, which showed a sharp rise. Consequently, much of the rise in the total trade deficit may have been priced-in last week itself.
EUR/USD Technical Levels
The pair now trades at a fresh session high of 1.1230. The immediate resistance is seen in the range of 1.1280-1.13, above which the spot could rise to 1.1373 (Sep 14 high), followed by a major hurdle at 1.1460. On the lower side, a break below 50-DMA at 1.1178 exposes 100-DMA at 1.1139.
US Trade deficit seen widening in August
The consensus estimate calls for a rise in the trade deficit to USD 47.40 billion from USD 41.86 billion. The drop in the exports due to a strong US dollar and weak global demand is likely to contribute heavily to the rise in the deficit. Meanwhile, a rise in the imports could be read as slightly positive, since it could mean the improvement in the domestic consumption.
However, the markets may turn a blind eye towards the actual figure since the US released goods trade deficit figures for August last week, which showed a sharp rise. Consequently, much of the rise in the total trade deficit may have been priced-in last week itself.
EUR/USD Technical Levels
The pair now trades at a fresh session high of 1.1230. The immediate resistance is seen in the range of 1.1280-1.13, above which the spot could rise to 1.1373 (Sep 14 high), followed by a major hurdle at 1.1460. On the lower side, a break below 50-DMA at 1.1178 exposes 100-DMA at 1.1139.