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23 Nov 2015
AUD: Short-squeeze pushed the Aussie higher - BBH
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, notes that the Australian dollar rose a little more than 1.5% last week and technically, we think a short-squeeze succeeded in pushing the currency above a downtrend that triggered ascending stops.
Key Quotes
“Copper prices fell to new six-year lows. The price of gold was at fresh five-year lows. Iron ore prices were also at multi-year lows. Still, technical and fundamental considerations fueled the Aussie's recovery. Fundamentally, there is increased speculation that the RBA's easing cycle is complete. The two-year yield was up three bp to 2.0%, the biggest increase among the high income countries on the week, and the highest nominal yield among them, outside of New Zealand.”
“The Australian dollar's strength is begetting talk of new carry trades. This is possible. The market is too big and strategies too diverse to rule it out, but remember that under current conditions, being long Australian dollars against the euro, yen, or sterling for that matter, can be a driven by momentum considerations.”
“One is indeed paid a little to be so positioned, but many short-term traders and even professionals may find that volatility is high enough that it still may overwhelm the carry. Most positions foreign exchange traders (as opposed to investors) do not appear to be kept long enough to earn an attractive amount of interest income.”
Key Quotes
“Copper prices fell to new six-year lows. The price of gold was at fresh five-year lows. Iron ore prices were also at multi-year lows. Still, technical and fundamental considerations fueled the Aussie's recovery. Fundamentally, there is increased speculation that the RBA's easing cycle is complete. The two-year yield was up three bp to 2.0%, the biggest increase among the high income countries on the week, and the highest nominal yield among them, outside of New Zealand.”
“The Australian dollar's strength is begetting talk of new carry trades. This is possible. The market is too big and strategies too diverse to rule it out, but remember that under current conditions, being long Australian dollars against the euro, yen, or sterling for that matter, can be a driven by momentum considerations.”
“One is indeed paid a little to be so positioned, but many short-term traders and even professionals may find that volatility is high enough that it still may overwhelm the carry. Most positions foreign exchange traders (as opposed to investors) do not appear to be kept long enough to earn an attractive amount of interest income.”