US: Q4 GDP growth expected at 2.3% q/q – Danske Bank

Analysts at Danske Bank note that today we get the first estimate of US GDP growth for Q4 16 and they estimate GDP growth was 2.3% q/q AR driven mainly by private consumption.

Key Quotes

“Business investments seem to have bottomed out when looking at core capex orders and we expect a positive contribution to growth in Q4. Capex orders for December are also released today and should have increased. Looking ahead, we expect capex orders to move higher on the back of higher oil prices, which supports oil investments and the rebound in manufacturing.”

“US PCE core inflation in Q4 will give us the December inflation rate implicitly . Based on the CPI data released last week, we estimate PCE core prices rose 0.2% m/m in December, corresponding to a quarterly print of 1.4 q/q AR in Q4, down from 1.7% in Q3.”