Turkey: CPI inflation to continue to move higher in April, to 11.7% Y/Y - TDS

Analysts at TDS suggest that the consensus is looking for Turkey’s CPI inflation to continue to move higher in April, to 11.7% Y/Y from a prior 11.3%.

Key Quotes

“Core is expected to move up to 9.9% Y/Y from 9.46%. Continued pass-through from earlier lira weakness should be one of the main drivers in the move higher in inflation.  Given recent lira stability, pass-through effects should be coming to an end, suggesting that we are near the peak in headline inflation. However, we think that the CBRT’s forecast that inflation will fall to 8.5% by the end of this year is far too optimistic; our forecast is 9.8%.”