NZ: Payback in external migration - ANZ

Analysts at ANZ note that NZ’s monthly net migrant inflows retraced from a high level, reaffirming their view that the cycle remains in gradual easing mode.

Key Quotes

“A weak print for long-term arrivals did most of the work, hitting a 3-year low in February.”

“Visitor arrivals held, reflecting solid growth in the number of holiday makers.”

“Key Points

• In seasonally adjusted terms, a net inflow of 4,970 migrants was recorded in February. This follows a solid print of 6,270 in January, which taken together with today’s figure suggests the cycle is still turning.
• Monthly long-term arrivals hit at a 3-year low (sa), with non-New Zealand and non-Australian citizens falling sharply from last month and the number of New Zealand citizen arrivals broadly flat.
• The number of departures remained flat. The number of departures of non-New Zealand and non-Australian citizens is trending higher, likely a natural cycling effect of earlier strong arrivals. However, the number of departures of New Zealand citizens remains low speaking to the strength of the local labour market. Annual net migration with Australia is stable at roughly zero (which admittedly is a historically strong level).
• Growth in student visa arrivals from China and India continued to fall, down 9.2% and 4.1% y/y respectively. However, other country student arrivals continue to provide an offset.
• Visitor arrivals picked up in February (sa), with solid growth in the number of holiday makers. Today’s figures paint a slightly more optimistic picture of visitor arrivals than we had envisioned. We suspect this may have something to do with the strong uplift in arrivals from China, reflecting a particularly strong holiday season.”