US: PCE inflation and income-spending data at the centre stage - TDS

Analysts at TDS suggest that US PCE inflation for February for will provide the main risk event and TD is slightly below the market for both headline and core.

Key Quotes

“We look for core PCE inflation to hold at 1.5% y/y, with prices up 0.2% m/m (market: 1.6% y/y, 0.2% m/m). We also expect the headline PCE deflator to remain unchanged from last month at 1.7% y/y, reflecting a 0.1% increase on the month (market: 1.7% y/y, 0.2% m/m). Personal spending should rise by 0.3% while we expect incomes to see a 0.4% advance (market: 0.2%, 0.4%, respectively).”

“University of Michigan Sentiment for March will be released at 10:00 ET but the market does not expect any change from the preliminary 102.0 reading, while initial jobless claims are expected by the market to edge modestly higher to 230k. Lastly, Philadelphia Fed President Harker (nonvoter) will speak about outlook at 13:00 ET.”