NZ: Expect a soft 0.3% rise in employment - Westpac

There are signs that the improving trend in the labour market has become bogged down more recently, as slower economic growth and uncertainty around government policy have weighed on firms’ hiring decisions, according to Michael Gordon, Senior Economist at Westpac.

Key Quotes

“We expect a soft 0.3% rise in the number of workers, and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.5%. Labour costs, which tend to evolve slowly in any case, are expected to be in line with previous quarters.”

“Our estimates suggest that the labour market is currently in ‘neutral’ rather than ‘tight’ territory, in terms of its influence on inflation pressures. Consequently, we expect wage growth to be in line with previous quarters.”