EUR/USD: end of the corrective up move? – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, assessed the recent price action around spot.

Key Quotes

“EUR/USD last week sold off to and recovered from the 55 week moving average currently at 1.1851. It has reached the 23.6% retracement of the move down from February, this is located at 1.1996. It is possible that this is the end of the corrective move higher – evidence is conflicting. For now we are unable to rule out one more thrust higher but the rally will shortly encounter the 200 day ma at 1.2021 and the 1.2092 September 2017 high. Above here lies the 1.2155 March low and we would expect this to cap the topside - longer term we will stay negative. A move below 1.1875 would indicate a retest of the 1.1823 recent low”.

“Beyond this we look for a slide to the May 2016 high at 1.1616 and the 1.1553 November 2017 low”.

“Our overall bearish bias is maintained while capped by the 2008-2018 resistance line at 1.2593”.