When are the UK CPIs and how could they affect GBP/USD?

The UK June CPIs Overview

The cost of living in the UK as represented by the consumer price index (CPI) is due later today at 0830 GMT. The headline CPI inflation is expected to tick lower to 0.2% m/m in June while the annualized figure is seen firmer at 2.6%. The core inflation rate that excludes volatile food and energy items is also expected to have accelerated to 2.2% last month versus 2.1% booked in May.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 15 and 80 pips in deviations up to 2 to -3, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 120 pips.

How could it affect GBP/USD?

Upbeat UK CPI figures are likely to offer the much-needed respite to the GBP bulls, prompting a recovery back above the 1.31 handle for the upside targets of 1.3148 (daily pivot), 1.3179 (5-DMA) and 1.3214/26 (10-DMA/ classic R1).

On a downside surprise, the GBP/USD pair could breach three-week lows of 1.3070 below which floors open up for a test of 1.3050 (seven-month lows) and 1.3000 (key psychological levels).

Key Notes

Market themes of the Day: UK & Eurozone inflation and Powell’s testimony part 2.0 headline

Could CPI Rescue POUND-ed Brexit-hit Sterling?

UK: CPI to pick up to 2.6% y/y in June - TDS

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Sterling on the downside as bears resume control

About the UK CPI

The Consumer Price Index released by the Office for National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchasing power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).