US-China trade to remain at the forefront for markets – RBS

Analysts at the Royal Bank of Scotland note that the US President Trump upped the ante in US-China trade negotiations last week, jacking up tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%.

Key Quotes

“Earlier hikes in tariffs have had, to date, a limited impact. A combination of the tariffs being devised to be felt by Chinese suppliers, a falling Chinese currency and producers accepting smaller margins blunted their efficacy. This time it might be harder to insulate US consumers from the effects, a little upward pressure on prices may be unavoidable. Who has more to lose?”

“Well, Chinese exports to the US are equal to about 2.5% of China’s GDP. For the US it’s much smaller, around 1%. But that’s just one angle to the trade war, there are a host of others.”