WTI holds above 200 4-HMA into API data

• WTI volatility on the rise within narrow range of between $54.57 and $55.87.
• Eyes are on a number of critical data, including API after closing bell. 

On what is set to be a busty end of the month, markets are somewhat sidelined and the hourly volatility in the US oil has been a touch higher on Tuesday. However, oil has stuck within a relatively narrow range of between $54.57 and $55.87 on a spot basis for West Texas Intermediate crude. 

The week ahead

For the week ahead, eyes are on a number of critical data, including CHinse Manufacturing PMI, US PMIs, the Federal Open Market Committee, Australian Consumer Price Index, German Historic Harmonised Inflation and US Nonfarm Payrolls, all set to the rock the barrel with respect to the demand side prospects from the Global economy. 

Meanwhile, there are expectations for a rise in U.S. crude inventories when the American Petroleum Institute is expected to release its estimate of last week’s inventories after the closing bell today which could be a prelude for what to expect from the Energy Information Administration’s official data due Wednesday morning.

From a fundamental perspective, energy markets have benefited from signs that a trade deal is on the verge of going to contract between the US and China, lifting spirits and risk appetite, consequently, supportive of the price of oil. However,  the market has not been able to make a material push higher: 

Saudis may have a hard time convincing other OPEC+

"Indeed, persistent demand and growth fears, along with likely supply growth ex-OPEC suggest the first half of 2020 is set for major surpluses, even if OPEC+ increases their output reduction by an additional 500k b/d," analysts at TD Securities explained, adding, that, "in this context, we remain concerned that the Saudis may have a hard time convincing other OPEC+ members to deepen their cuts enough to balance the market. Meanwhile, given the inability to rally another leg higher, recent CTA acquisitions could be at risk with $54.50/bbl, $58/bbl and $1.91/gal serving as notable downside triggers across WTI."

WTI levels