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1 Aug 2014
It’s all about Payrolls and the ISM today – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jens Pedersen, Analys at Danske Bank, underlines today’s main events in the FX universe.
Key Quotes
“The US employment report and ISM manufacturing will wrap up a busy week”.
“We look for a rise of 250k in total payrolls, a bit higher than consensus of 225k”.
“Jobless claims and other labour market indicators paint a fairly robust picture of the US labour market and we look for a rise of 250-300k per month over the coming quarters”.
“The unemployment rate will also be in focus. We expect it to be unchanged at 6.1% following the decline in June from 6.3%”.
“If unemployment continues to decline at the rate seen over the past two years, it will hit the Fed's estimate of long-term unemployment of 5.4% in Q2 next year”.
“Also keep an eye on hourly earnings growth in the employment report. It has remained subdued around 2% for a long time and is a sign for the Fed that there is still plenty of slack in the labour market”.
“We look for the ISM manufacturing index to rise slightly to 56.0 from 55.3. This is in line with consensus and reflects a further slight improvement in US production supported by strong consumer goods demand over the past months”.
Key Quotes
“The US employment report and ISM manufacturing will wrap up a busy week”.
“We look for a rise of 250k in total payrolls, a bit higher than consensus of 225k”.
“Jobless claims and other labour market indicators paint a fairly robust picture of the US labour market and we look for a rise of 250-300k per month over the coming quarters”.
“The unemployment rate will also be in focus. We expect it to be unchanged at 6.1% following the decline in June from 6.3%”.
“If unemployment continues to decline at the rate seen over the past two years, it will hit the Fed's estimate of long-term unemployment of 5.4% in Q2 next year”.
“Also keep an eye on hourly earnings growth in the employment report. It has remained subdued around 2% for a long time and is a sign for the Fed that there is still plenty of slack in the labour market”.
“We look for the ISM manufacturing index to rise slightly to 56.0 from 55.3. This is in line with consensus and reflects a further slight improvement in US production supported by strong consumer goods demand over the past months”.