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26 Aug 2014
The day ahead brings key US data - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank note the up and coming data releases and highlight the US docket that brings key events.
Key Quotes:
“Today we get a look at an important actor in the US data pantheon - durable goods orders. However, it’s one that keeps fluffing its lines. We are supposed to be seeing a strong pick-up in business investment after years of ultra-low rates, but this stubbornly refuses to ‘enter stage left’ despite repeated promptings. Expectations today are for a strong delivery, however, with +8.0% MoM print for the headline series (vs. +1.7% last time round), +0.5% ex-transport, and +0.7% for core goods actually shipped (vs. -0.3% in June). Let’s see if it gets it right this month”.
“We also have the US S&P/Case-Shiller house price index, which has been suggesting that the housing recovery meme is well into its final act: will that negative trend continue this month? Expectations are for a flat MoM reading, taking YoY house-price growth down to just 8.3% YoY”.
“Lastly there is US consumer confidence for August, where we effectively get to see what the audience thinks of the show so far: will it be roses or rotten fruit? Consensus is that they are not yet completely happy as headline confidence is expected to dip from 90.9 to 89.0. That’s hardly a ‘we close on opening night’ disaster given the far weaker readings we’ve seen earlier this year, but looking back at the blockbusting run of the mid-2000s, it is still perhaps the equivalent of someone at the back heckling, “Get on with it!” (the sustainable recovery that consumers can feel the benefit of, that is)”.
“So, welcome back UK readers after your break, and break a leg today everyone (no groaning please, good scriptwriters are hard to find): Lights, Camera, Action!”.
Key Quotes:
“Today we get a look at an important actor in the US data pantheon - durable goods orders. However, it’s one that keeps fluffing its lines. We are supposed to be seeing a strong pick-up in business investment after years of ultra-low rates, but this stubbornly refuses to ‘enter stage left’ despite repeated promptings. Expectations today are for a strong delivery, however, with +8.0% MoM print for the headline series (vs. +1.7% last time round), +0.5% ex-transport, and +0.7% for core goods actually shipped (vs. -0.3% in June). Let’s see if it gets it right this month”.
“We also have the US S&P/Case-Shiller house price index, which has been suggesting that the housing recovery meme is well into its final act: will that negative trend continue this month? Expectations are for a flat MoM reading, taking YoY house-price growth down to just 8.3% YoY”.
“Lastly there is US consumer confidence for August, where we effectively get to see what the audience thinks of the show so far: will it be roses or rotten fruit? Consensus is that they are not yet completely happy as headline confidence is expected to dip from 90.9 to 89.0. That’s hardly a ‘we close on opening night’ disaster given the far weaker readings we’ve seen earlier this year, but looking back at the blockbusting run of the mid-2000s, it is still perhaps the equivalent of someone at the back heckling, “Get on with it!” (the sustainable recovery that consumers can feel the benefit of, that is)”.
“So, welcome back UK readers after your break, and break a leg today everyone (no groaning please, good scriptwriters are hard to find): Lights, Camera, Action!”.